The 2024 presidential election is less than a year away, and a supposed rematch between Biden and Trump that everyone is sick of is becoming increasingly likely. However, could there be a surprise entrant in the race that would shake things up?

According to some senior Republicans, the answer is yes – and the person they expect to kick off the campaign at the last minute is Michelle Obama. 

I wonder who said Michelle Obama would be running in 2024?

The latest version of this speculation comes from Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Axelrod wrote that after a new attention-grabbing poll showed Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden in several key states, Axelrod wrote that the data would “raise a shiver of doubt” in the Democratic Party about whether Biden could win a second term.

The next day on Fox & Friends, Cruz called Axelrod’s comments “very serious.” 

As Cruz emphasized on Fox, he’s made similar statements before: In a September episode of his podcast, he said Michelle Obama could be the last-minute savior candidate for Democrats, a possibility he called “very, very dangerous.”

Cruz isn’t the only Republican with this way of thinking, however. Former vice presidential contender Sarah Palin predicted in September that the former FLOTUS would replace Biden on the Democratic ticket. 

There has also been much speculation in the media about how the former first lady will change the race.

Contrary to all the talk about her supposedly seeking a return to the White House, Obama has made it clear that she does not intend to get on the Democratic ticket – or any ticket, for that matter.

So why hasn’t the speculation stopped?

For one thing, of course, Obama would be a dream candidate for many Democrats. After all, she is a widely popular cultural figure whose life after the White House includes publishing two best-selling books and concert events packing arenas across the country. Polls conducted over the summer showed that if Obama were to seek the Democratic nomination, she would boast a double-digit lead over Joe Biden. In addition, at 59, she would reassure voters wary of the impact of Biden’s 80-year-old age, which David Axelrod has called the president’s “biggest problem.”

But her persona also plays into the hands of familiar narratives on the other side of the aisle. Ted Cruz’s recent comments didn’t just insinuate a grand conspiracy of Obama’s shadowy influence over Biden; he also used Michelle’s racial identity to support his point.

Another example could be cited: To cite an example, in May, USA Today did a fact-check on another claim about Obama’s possible candidacy that circulated online thanks in part to a popular Instagram post in which a woman suggested that Obama hoped to become “the first trans woman to serve as president.” Claims that Obama was born initially male are so common that PolitiFact has repeatedly conducted fact-checks that disprove entirely them. Still, it’s a familiar enough dog whistle that may be an effective tactic to convince under informed voters that she (and the Democratic Party) has something to hide.

Whether Joe Biden can win in 2024 is the main issue, and whether a novice Democratic challenger with low name recognition like Dean Phillips can gain any ground is another. Of course, surprises are inevitable in politics. Still, all indications are that Michelle Obama will not enter the fray to complicate things further – no matter how often it is discussed as a possibility.